rc5 list Distributed.net

Andrew Hime | 23 Nov 2011 07:44

2% down, 98% to go

On August 26th, 2010, distributed.net's RC5-72 effort reached 1% 
completion - an effort that took 2824 days, approximately 7.7 years. At 
the time, I did some quick math and predicted that we would reach 2% 
completion by February 4th, 2012.

We got there last night, November 21st. A workload that I figured to 
take 1.4 years took approximately 1.2.

It took 3276 days to do 1% of the RC5-72 keyspace - a time of almost 9 
years. At the current keyrate, we will complete 100% of the keyspace in 
136.5 years. At the current keyrate, we will reach 3% completion in 
approximately 1.4 years, or around April 10th, 2013.

I did some rough math (back of napkin kind of stuff). Assuming that the 
keyrate doubles approximately every 18 months (which, ignoring the 
introduction of the Stream client, still seems valid), we will reach 
100% completion within 9.3 years.

So, somewhere between 9 and 137 years to go. Given the lag time after 
OGR-27 completes (somewhere between 1.5-4.5 years from now) and before 
the next OGR project starts, those numbers are likely on the high side.

***

I've maintained the formatting from my previous post on this subject, 
now some commentary:

About the Stream clents - Windows Stream has been the #1 client for 
quite a while now. A few months back, they accounted for more than half 
the total workload ever done. A few days ago, they accounted for double

(Continue reading)

headers

Joseph Kaye | 29 Nov 2011 18:53

Re: 2% down, 98% to go

That was a great writeup, Andrew!   In your section about things we 
should be looking at, I would vote for a hybrid client that would be 
able to use CPU, Cuda and/or Stream all in one client.

I am sure there are fair number of people that are running DNETC, and 
don't even realize that they have a video card that can do it too.

On 11/23/2011 12:44 AM, Andrew Hime wrote:
> On August 26th, 2010, distributed.net's RC5-72 effort reached 1%
> completion - an effort that took 2824 days, approximately 7.7 years. At
> the time, I did some quick math and predicted that we would reach 2%
> completion by February 4th, 2012.
>
> We got there last night, November 21st. A workload that I figured to
> take 1.4 years took approximately 1.2.
>
> It took 3276 days to do 1% of the RC5-72 keyspace - a time of almost 9
> years. At the current keyrate, we will complete 100% of the keyspace in
> 136.5 years. At the current keyrate, we will reach 3% completion in
> approximately 1.4 years, or around April 10th, 2013.
>
> I did some rough math (back of napkin kind of stuff). Assuming that the
> keyrate doubles approximately every 18 months (which, ignoring the
> introduction of the Stream client, still seems valid), we will reach
> 100% completion within 9.3 years.
>
> So, somewhere between 9 and 137 years to go. Given the lag time after
> OGR-27 completes (somewhere between 1.5-4.5 years from now) and before
> the next OGR project starts, those numbers are likely on the high side.
>

(Continue reading)